Will 2016 Parallel 2012?: Presidential Election and Bullish Market Season

Will 2016 Parallel 2012?: Presidential Election and Bullish Market Season: Presidential Election and  Bullish Market Season  Weekend GOP presidential Donald Trump's lewd remarks on Entertainment Tonight Hos...

Presidential Election and Bullish Market Season

Presidential Election and  Bullish Market Season 

Weekend GOP presidential Donald Trump's lewd remarks on Entertainment Tonight Host Nancy O'Dell in 2005 once again created another headlines for all media.Some GOPers even asked Mr. Trump to quit now.

Tomorrow  will be the second presidential debate.Hillary Clinton won the first debate on September 26; Vice presidential debate winner went to GOP's Mike Pence over Democratic's Tim Kaine. In the first debate Mrs. Clinton obviously showed more politic intelligence and qualification than Mr. Trump. However in vice presidential debate, Mr. Kaine erroneously was impatient to interrupt Mr. Pence, creating a sense of Pence's higher level of debate.Historically, first debate has far more impact on final election results than the other two.

Based on Predictwise.Com's data,   Mrs. Clinton winning odds increased to 87% from 69% before the first debate, efficiently stopping Mr.Trump's momentum. Like stock market, trend in motion tends to continue. If this is true, Mrs. Clinton will win in November 8 election.

Mrs. Clinton economic policy focuses on investment and growth while Mr. Trump wants to reform domestically and internationally.In USA too much reform doesn't seem to be passed easily when Congress has divisive views, which will create a gridlock that in turn will have less uncertainties for the market. This is why the market likes Mrs. Clinton so far.

Next week will start the third quarter earning and bullish season.October is the jinx month due to crashes in 1929 and 1987, the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997, back-to back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989, and meltdown in 2008. Also October is a  bear killer and turned tide in 12 post-WWII bear markets: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002, and 2011. These facts are quoted from Yale Hirsch's and Jeffrey Hirsch's stock Trader's Almanac, 2017== its 50th anniversary. Tip my hat to my friend Messrs. Hirsch.  

So in the next four weeks market will not likely to drop too much, and will continue to engage time correction rather than magnitude correction.

Gunning Ju

 market analyst

Flushing, New York